UBA Lets the City Know about Seismic Issues of the Proposed Project

To City Officials,

As I’m sure you are already aware, the Trader Joe parcel is roughly one mile west (as the crow flies) from the primary trace of the Hayward Fault. You may also be aware that the Trader Joe site is almost directly adjacent to the culverted streambed of one of the main branches of Temescal Creek, which runs west from Lake Temescal towards the Bay shoreline in Emeryville.

The USGS has done a major study of the potential future earthquake risk to Oakland and the East Bay from a rupture of the Hayward Fault. A USGS study in 2018, which scenario was entitled “Haywired”, estimated that there was a high likelihood of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault segment running through Oakland during the next 20-30 years. While seismic engineering can provide adequate assurances that such an earthquake would not cause major structural damage to the two towers being proposed for the Trader Joe site, the same cannot be said for the health and safety of the occupants of those towers. It is also likely that unconsolidated alluvial soils underlay the site, further exacerbating the seismic risks at the site.

Analysis by a local structural engineer, and data published by USGS in 2025 as a follow-up to the Haywired scenario, indicate that the tower would undergo severe shaking during such a 7.0 earthquake. One result would be that all elevators in the project would automatically shut down, and could not be restarted until they had been inspected and cleared for restarting. That is likely to take, at best, several weeks. In the interim, the building would only have stairway access. That would make much of the building uninhabitable, especially for an elderly population where mobility issues can be expected to be widespread.

Further, the violent shaking of the building can be predicted to result in numerous falls among its elderly residents, particularly in the upper stories. Because balance problems and osteoporosis tend to be widespread in elderly populations, injuries from falls, including bone fractures in extremities and in the hip and pelvis, must be expected. Evacuating the injured without elevator access would be extremely challenging.

For all these reasons, we believe that the plans for elderly housing in such high-rise structures at this site need to be seriously reconsidered. At minimum, the developer should be required to provide an evacuation plan and an analysis of seismic safety. These should be peer reviewed. The issues raised here are a serious threat to the health and safety of future residents.

Sincerely,

Myrna Walton for Upper Broadway Advocates

Stuart Flashman, Ph.D., J.D.